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I wonder how he made this Middle East deal even happen?
Donald Trump is the 47 President of US
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Thread started by Revolved101
Israel already "obliterated" Hamas, severly weakened Iran and the houthis. The temporary peace or truce between hamas and israel is bound to happen no matter who the current US president is. It just so happens Trump is the current president. Any US president can easily help make it happen given the current state of Hamas, Iran and the houthis. Hamas was also persuaded by Qatar and Turkey to release the hostages as they had become a liabilty than asset for Hamas.
And even without Trump ordered Surgical air strike on Iran's nuclear plant, Israel's surgical airstrikes alone on Iran already weakened Iran severely enough too. If Trump was able to stop Netanyahu's continued military ops on Hamas and/or forced Hamas to free the hostages and/or forced a truce or temporary peace between them near the start of it or before gaza was as destroyed as like now then that would be an impressive achievement for Trump. But that's not the case.
Trump's 20 point gaza peace plan is fragile. Netanyahu and Hamas have not agreed to all of the 20 points plan, they only picked out those points they like. Netanyahu repudiated the plan’s mention of a Palestinian state not long after appearing with Trump to laud it. Hamas was more grasping at the cease fire and Israeli redeployment but not agreeing to almost all of the longer-term elements. The current lingua franca of diplomacy is to pursue objectives by saluting Trump, hoping that will coax US in the favoured direction. Like what many leaders already did. Thus the only real agreement is to a ceasefire, Israel troops redeployment, and release of hostages and prisoners.
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Article from abc news Australia:
In any negotiation, it's always the tricky final details that are the hardest to agree on.
That has especially been the case in the long, dismal history of failed Middle East peace deals — where "final status" issues like where borders would be drawn, and the location of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, have tripped up negotiators in the final stretch.
Yes, there's an agreement for a ceasefire, and the release of hostages and prisoners.
But almost everything else appears to have been pushed out to be dealt with later — from the date of a full Israeli withdrawal, to who will govern Gaza afterwards, to an implausible "pathway to Palestinian statehood".
The last ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell apart in March, when a second round of negotiations that were supposed to finalise a peace agreement never got underway.
This deal is supposedly far more comprehensive. However, some elements directly contradict Israel's "red-line" positions.
All of which means there is any number of ways this could all fall over — perhaps within days.
Hamas may not disarm
Let's assume the first hurdles are cleared — the return of all remaining hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
History suggests that will happen, as it did in stages during the last ceasefire in January, until it collapsed.
Let's also assume Israel's military pulls back out of Gaza's coastal city areas in the first 72 hours, as agreed.
Here, according to Donald Trump's 20-point plan, is what should happen next — and why it might not:
It's hard to overstate how significant it would be for Hamas — a resistance group and listed terrorist organisation — to disarm.
It has previously said it would only lay down its weapons once a Palestinian state had been established.
In its initial response to the US plan, Hamas did not mention disarming at all.
However, there are reports Hamas has told mediators it may be prepared to give up its missiles, but not its small arms — and even then, only if Donald Trump can guarantee that Israel will not resume fighting.
That's a big if.
US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (left) and White House advisor Jared Kushner (right) with Benjamin Netanyahu. (Supplied)
Last year, Israel repeatedly breached the ceasefire in Lebanon, launching air strikes it said were aimed at stopping Hezbollah from re-establishing its military presence during the truce.
Preventing similar breaches of the Gaza ceasefire deal would also mean relying heavily on Donald Trump's willingness to restrain Israel — something that for much of his presidency, he has shown little interest in doing.
This part of the deal is looking shaky:
Donald Trump's plan clearly states that the demilitarisation of Gaza would be done "under the supervision of independent monitors".
But on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces would remain in Gaza to pressure Hamas until it disarmed.
"We grapple Hamas. We grapple it all around, ahead of the next stages of the plan, in which Hamas is disarmed and Gaza is demilitarised.
"If this can be achieved the easy way, very well. If not, it will be achieved the hard way," he said.
In any case, the details of Israel's withdrawal are extremely vague.
The Trump 20-point plan says the IDF will withdraw "… based on standards, milestones, and time frames linked to demilitarisation that will be agreed upon between the IDF, [the International Stabilisation Force], the guarantors, and the United States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens."
But if those milestones and time frames exist anywhere, they have not been made public.
The road connecting north and south Gaza was crowded in the hours after the ceasefire started. (ABC News)
Eventually, Israel would resume its security presence on the Gaza perimeter, as it has for two decades — and likely keeping control over who, and what, moves in and out of Gaza through the border crossings.
That's been a major concern of the international community, especially when it comes to restricting the flow of aid and medical supplies.
Would a return to the status quo on border crossings be acceptable? The plan stated:
Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference with Donald Trump in Washington in September. (AP: Alex Brandon)
Standing next to Donald Trump at the White House last month, Netanyahu effectively ruled out the Palestinian Authority (PA) having any role in Gaza.
"I appreciate your firm position that the PA could have no role whatsoever in Gaza without undergoing a radical and genuine transformation," he said.
The catch in the Trump plan is the word "reform". In order to assume control of Gaza, the PA must enact changes outlined in Trump's previous 2020 peace plan.
Some have already been implemented, or promised. Some — like recognising Israel as a Jewish state — will not be.
"It won't come as a surprise to you that the vast majority of Israelis have no faith that the PA leopard will change its spots," Netanyahu said.
"In your 2020 peace plan … you made clear what that transformation requires. It's not lip service. It's not checking a box.
"It's a fundamental, genuine and enduring transformation. And that means ending pay to slay, changing the poisonous textbooks that teach hatred to Jews, to Palestinian children, stopping incitement in the media, ending lawfare against Israel at the [International Criminal Court], the [International Court of Justice], recognising the Jewish state and many, many other reforms.
"But rather than wait for this miraculous transformation, your plan provides a practical and realistic path forward … in which Gaza will be administered neither by Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, but by those committed to a genuine peace with Israel."
On the other side, Hamas issued a statement on Saturday saying it rejects "any foreign guardianship".
Once the ceasefire takes effect, US, Qatari, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will attempt to get both sides to agree what Trump called a "strong, durable, and everlasting peace".
In September, Benjamin Netanyahu stood in a West Bank settlement and repeated his promise that there would never be a Palestinian state.
"We are going to fulfil our promise that there will be no Palestinian state. This place belongs to us," he said.
"We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security."
An "everlasting peace" is widely regarded as only being possible with the establishment of a Palestinian state.
But Israel's steady political shift to the right means that any government — with or without Benjamin Netanyahu — would find it impossible to allow a Palestinian state and survive in power.
The October 7 atrocity, and the horror of the hostages, has hardened Israelis' attitudes even further.
There's also no knowing what impact the long and devastating war has had on a generation of young Palestinians and their attitude toward living in peace with Israel.
In any negotiation, it's always the tricky final details that are the hardest to agree on.
That has especially been the case in the long, dismal history of failed Middle East peace deals — where "final status" issues like where borders would be drawn, and the location of a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, have tripped up negotiators in the final stretch.
Yes, there's an agreement for a ceasefire, and the release of hostages and prisoners.
But almost everything else appears to have been pushed out to be dealt with later — from the date of a full Israeli withdrawal, to who will govern Gaza afterwards, to an implausible "pathway to Palestinian statehood".
The last ceasefire between Israel and Hamas fell apart in March, when a second round of negotiations that were supposed to finalise a peace agreement never got underway.
This deal is supposedly far more comprehensive. However, some elements directly contradict Israel's "red-line" positions.
All of which means there is any number of ways this could all fall over — perhaps within days.
Hamas may not disarm
Let's assume the first hurdles are cleared — the return of all remaining hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
History suggests that will happen, as it did in stages during the last ceasefire in January, until it collapsed.
Let's also assume Israel's military pulls back out of Gaza's coastal city areas in the first 72 hours, as agreed.
Here, according to Donald Trump's 20-point plan, is what should happen next — and why it might not:
It's hard to overstate how significant it would be for Hamas — a resistance group and listed terrorist organisation — to disarm.
It has previously said it would only lay down its weapons once a Palestinian state had been established.
In its initial response to the US plan, Hamas did not mention disarming at all.
However, there are reports Hamas has told mediators it may be prepared to give up its missiles, but not its small arms — and even then, only if Donald Trump can guarantee that Israel will not resume fighting.
That's a big if.
Israeli forces to remain in Gaza: Netanyahu
US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (left) and White House advisor Jared Kushner (right) with Benjamin Netanyahu. (Supplied)
Last year, Israel repeatedly breached the ceasefire in Lebanon, launching air strikes it said were aimed at stopping Hezbollah from re-establishing its military presence during the truce.
Preventing similar breaches of the Gaza ceasefire deal would also mean relying heavily on Donald Trump's willingness to restrain Israel — something that for much of his presidency, he has shown little interest in doing.
This part of the deal is looking shaky:
Donald Trump's plan clearly states that the demilitarisation of Gaza would be done "under the supervision of independent monitors".
But on Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces would remain in Gaza to pressure Hamas until it disarmed.
"We grapple Hamas. We grapple it all around, ahead of the next stages of the plan, in which Hamas is disarmed and Gaza is demilitarised.
"If this can be achieved the easy way, very well. If not, it will be achieved the hard way," he said.
In any case, the details of Israel's withdrawal are extremely vague.
The Trump 20-point plan says the IDF will withdraw "… based on standards, milestones, and time frames linked to demilitarisation that will be agreed upon between the IDF, [the International Stabilisation Force], the guarantors, and the United States, with the objective of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its citizens."
But if those milestones and time frames exist anywhere, they have not been made public.
No consensus on Gaza authority
The road connecting north and south Gaza was crowded in the hours after the ceasefire started. (ABC News)
Eventually, Israel would resume its security presence on the Gaza perimeter, as it has for two decades — and likely keeping control over who, and what, moves in and out of Gaza through the border crossings.
That's been a major concern of the international community, especially when it comes to restricting the flow of aid and medical supplies.
Would a return to the status quo on border crossings be acceptable? The plan stated:
That's not going to happen, according to Benjamin Netanyahu — and possibly, also according to Hamas.
Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a news conference with Donald Trump in Washington in September. (AP: Alex Brandon)
Standing next to Donald Trump at the White House last month, Netanyahu effectively ruled out the Palestinian Authority (PA) having any role in Gaza.
"I appreciate your firm position that the PA could have no role whatsoever in Gaza without undergoing a radical and genuine transformation," he said.
The catch in the Trump plan is the word "reform". In order to assume control of Gaza, the PA must enact changes outlined in Trump's previous 2020 peace plan.
Some have already been implemented, or promised. Some — like recognising Israel as a Jewish state — will not be.
"It won't come as a surprise to you that the vast majority of Israelis have no faith that the PA leopard will change its spots," Netanyahu said.
"In your 2020 peace plan … you made clear what that transformation requires. It's not lip service. It's not checking a box.
"It's a fundamental, genuine and enduring transformation. And that means ending pay to slay, changing the poisonous textbooks that teach hatred to Jews, to Palestinian children, stopping incitement in the media, ending lawfare against Israel at the [International Criminal Court], the [International Court of Justice], recognising the Jewish state and many, many other reforms.
"But rather than wait for this miraculous transformation, your plan provides a practical and realistic path forward … in which Gaza will be administered neither by Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, but by those committed to a genuine peace with Israel."
On the other side, Hamas issued a statement on Saturday saying it rejects "any foreign guardianship".
Once the ceasefire takes effect, US, Qatari, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will attempt to get both sides to agree what Trump called a "strong, durable, and everlasting peace".
In September, Benjamin Netanyahu stood in a West Bank settlement and repeated his promise that there would never be a Palestinian state.
"We are going to fulfil our promise that there will be no Palestinian state. This place belongs to us," he said.
"We will safeguard our heritage, our land and our security."
An "everlasting peace" is widely regarded as only being possible with the establishment of a Palestinian state.
But Israel's steady political shift to the right means that any government — with or without Benjamin Netanyahu — would find it impossible to allow a Palestinian state and survive in power.
The October 7 atrocity, and the horror of the hostages, has hardened Israelis' attitudes even further.
There's also no knowing what impact the long and devastating war has had on a generation of young Palestinians and their attitude toward living in peace with Israel.
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- 91,587
Can't wait for it to collapse and send Trump spiraling.
Looks like Second nationwide protest is happening again:
Still, this Saturday, even in cities with troops on the ground, millions of people are expected to march against the president as part of a second “No Kings” protest. The last No Kings protest in June drew several million people across more than 2,000 locations. This time, more than 2,500 cities and towns nationwide are hosting protests.
Organizers expect this Saturday’s protests to draw more people than the June events as the American public sees the excesses of the Trump administration more clearly.
“Their goal is to dissuade you from participating,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of Indivisible, the progressive movement organization with chapters around the US that is a main organizer of No Kings. “That doesn’t mean that everybody has the same threat level. It doesn’t mean that people should ignore what the threats are, but it does mean we’re going to need to see a lot of courage out there on Saturday.”
More than 200 organizations are signed on as partners for the 18 October protests; none have dropped off for fear of a Trump backlash, Levin said. The American Civil Liberties Union, the civil rights group, is a partner, as is the advocacy group Public Citizen. Unions including the American Federation of Teachers and SEIU are in the coalition. The new protest movement 50501, which began earlier this year as a call for protests in all 50 states on a single day, is also a partner. Other partners include the Human Rights Campaign, MoveOn, United We Dream, the League of Conservation Voters, Common Defense and more.
Resistance to Trump continues to grow. The Harvard Crowd Counting Consortium, which tracks political crowds, noted that 2025 had seen “far more protests” than during the same time period in 2017. The June No Kings protests were “probably the second-largest single day demonstration since Donald Trump first took office in January 2017”, second to the Women’s March in 2017, the consortium said.
In June, on the same day a man shot and killed a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband, tens of thousands of people still turned out for No Kings in St Paul while the shooter was on the loose, with attenders saying they didn’t want to back down in the face of political violence.
The messages behind the No Kings protests are simple: Trump is acting like a king, and the US rejects kings. The No Kings coalition has cited Trump’s “increasing authoritarian excesses and corruption” as motivation for the protests, including ramping up of deportations, gutting healthcare, gerrymandering maps and selling out families for billionaires.
In the months since the first No Kings protests, Trump’s menace against the opposition has only grown, particularly after the far-right commentator Charlie Kirk was murdered. Trump declared antifa to be a terrorist organization and has promised to investigate and take action against any leftwing groups he deems support terrorism.
Amid this backdrop, tens of thousands of people have joined calls in recent weeks to prepare safety plans, train on how to serve as marshals for the protests and learn de-escalation tactics.
Still, some people may decide to stay home because the threats against them are too great, including the fear of deportation for participating in peaceful protest.
“They’re making choices like that every day when they decide whether to go to school or whether to go to work or whether it’s safe to go grocery shopping,” said Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen. “Unfortunately, that’s the climate that the Trump administration is engendering aside from this particular day of activation, so I assume that people will make that calculus on this day as well. But I also think that the fact that people have to make that calculus is part of the reason for our protest.”
Trump is “using our tax dollars to attack and declare war on our city and on the people that live here,” and locals should make it clear in large numbers that they don’t agree with it, Poloyac said. “We’re asking people to lean into their courage.”
Organizers will have more than 150 safety marshals along the route and in the rally location, she said. The idea is that “we keep us safe.” Marshals from Indivisible Chicago and other organizations helped serve at other events, like Mexican Independence Day parades, to protect their community, she noted.
People are “already taking risks” just by going about their daily tasks in the city now, Poloyac said. There’s also a sense of strength in numbers at a protest; when there are tens of thousands of people, it’s harder to single someone out, she said.
“We’re hoping that people who didn’t come out in June are really angry now and upset and see what’s happening,” Poloyac said. “Those of us who do have more privilege need to come out and especially use that privilege to make our voices heard and to make it clear how unacceptable this is, what Trump and his agents are doing.”
Still, this Saturday, even in cities with troops on the ground, millions of people are expected to march against the president as part of a second “No Kings” protest. The last No Kings protest in June drew several million people across more than 2,000 locations. This time, more than 2,500 cities and towns nationwide are hosting protests.
Organizers expect this Saturday’s protests to draw more people than the June events as the American public sees the excesses of the Trump administration more clearly.
“Their goal is to dissuade you from participating,” said Ezra Levin, a co-founder of Indivisible, the progressive movement organization with chapters around the US that is a main organizer of No Kings. “That doesn’t mean that everybody has the same threat level. It doesn’t mean that people should ignore what the threats are, but it does mean we’re going to need to see a lot of courage out there on Saturday.”
More than 200 organizations are signed on as partners for the 18 October protests; none have dropped off for fear of a Trump backlash, Levin said. The American Civil Liberties Union, the civil rights group, is a partner, as is the advocacy group Public Citizen. Unions including the American Federation of Teachers and SEIU are in the coalition. The new protest movement 50501, which began earlier this year as a call for protests in all 50 states on a single day, is also a partner. Other partners include the Human Rights Campaign, MoveOn, United We Dream, the League of Conservation Voters, Common Defense and more.
Resistance to Trump continues to grow. The Harvard Crowd Counting Consortium, which tracks political crowds, noted that 2025 had seen “far more protests” than during the same time period in 2017. The June No Kings protests were “probably the second-largest single day demonstration since Donald Trump first took office in January 2017”, second to the Women’s March in 2017, the consortium said.
In June, on the same day a man shot and killed a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband, tens of thousands of people still turned out for No Kings in St Paul while the shooter was on the loose, with attenders saying they didn’t want to back down in the face of political violence.
The messages behind the No Kings protests are simple: Trump is acting like a king, and the US rejects kings. The No Kings coalition has cited Trump’s “increasing authoritarian excesses and corruption” as motivation for the protests, including ramping up of deportations, gutting healthcare, gerrymandering maps and selling out families for billionaires.
In the months since the first No Kings protests, Trump’s menace against the opposition has only grown, particularly after the far-right commentator Charlie Kirk was murdered. Trump declared antifa to be a terrorist organization and has promised to investigate and take action against any leftwing groups he deems support terrorism.
Amid this backdrop, tens of thousands of people have joined calls in recent weeks to prepare safety plans, train on how to serve as marshals for the protests and learn de-escalation tactics.
Still, some people may decide to stay home because the threats against them are too great, including the fear of deportation for participating in peaceful protest.
“They’re making choices like that every day when they decide whether to go to school or whether to go to work or whether it’s safe to go grocery shopping,” said Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen. “Unfortunately, that’s the climate that the Trump administration is engendering aside from this particular day of activation, so I assume that people will make that calculus on this day as well. But I also think that the fact that people have to make that calculus is part of the reason for our protest.”
Trump is “using our tax dollars to attack and declare war on our city and on the people that live here,” and locals should make it clear in large numbers that they don’t agree with it, Poloyac said. “We’re asking people to lean into their courage.”
Organizers will have more than 150 safety marshals along the route and in the rally location, she said. The idea is that “we keep us safe.” Marshals from Indivisible Chicago and other organizations helped serve at other events, like Mexican Independence Day parades, to protect their community, she noted.
People are “already taking risks” just by going about their daily tasks in the city now, Poloyac said. There’s also a sense of strength in numbers at a protest; when there are tens of thousands of people, it’s harder to single someone out, she said.
“We’re hoping that people who didn’t come out in June are really angry now and upset and see what’s happening,” Poloyac said. “Those of us who do have more privilege need to come out and especially use that privilege to make our voices heard and to make it clear how unacceptable this is, what Trump and his agents are doing.”