Update, read from tweaktown:
Based on assessment of key business figures, testimony from Xbox CEO Phil Spencer, and a recently-published bombshell email from Sony Interactive Entertainment CEO Jim Ryan, Sony is likely to sign a Call of Duty deal with Microsoft to ensure the $31 billion franchise says on PlayStation.
Microsoft has said it wants to keep Call of Duty on PlayStation, and Xbox Gaming CEO Phil Spencer's recent testimony at a court hearing over the Activision merger adds more weight to this assertion.
Below we have a quick transcription of one of the exchanges between FTC lawyer James Weingarten and Phil Spencer in relation to making Activision games exclusive to Xbox. In the exchange, Spencer mentions that the current financial model is based on Activision games staying on PlayStation--including Call of Duty.
Q You've had conversations at Microsoft about skipping PlayStation with Activision titles, yes or no?
It seems like a normal conversation that we would have.
Q You have had those conversations?
I don't remember specific conversations, but we would have had conversations about that, yes. I remember the result we came up with, which was the financial model that includes Activision games continuing to ship on PlayStation.
This model was approved by Microsoft's top management and the offer was made. The acquisition offer was presented to Activision's board of directors, who approved it, and the overwhelming majority of Activision's shareholders also approved the merger offer.
Elsewhere in the testimony, Phil Spencer discusses the process to Microsoft counsel Beth Wilkinson:
"We build a financial analysis to help us give a range of what we could afford to pay for a company and still feel like we have the right returns," Spencer said.
The gaming CEO continues, saying that he is beholden to keeping his commitments based on the proposed deal model:
"The commitments that I make to the board around financial return of any acquisition, especially one of nearly $70 billion, I look at it as critical to my job function to deliver on the results that I commit to the board and the company, and manage an effective and growing business."
"The financials...the size of Call of Duty, the role it plays in the valuation of buying Activision, [it would] make it financial impossible for us to recover...for us losing Call of Duty on its largest platform. There's significantly more players on PlayStation than Xbox, as we know. There's a lot more PlayStations on Xboxes, and the game is very successful on both," Spencer said.
As far as Sony's side of the negotiations, Spencer indicates that Sony "has to allow" Microsoft to ship the game on their platform. It's not up to Microsoft on whether or not Call of Duty actually ends up on PlayStation. Sony has to agree to a deal.