Or put simply, will Nintendo's current expanded audience market buy the system? Will the 3D be a reason to buy as highly valued as the touch screen or microphone for the DS, or Wii remote and motion sensing for the Wii?
Maybe it will be a mind-bogglingly fast-seller that is so fast-selling that it will BEAT the TOTAL number of PS2s sold (around 160 million), over the 11 years since release in March 2000, .... by the end of 2011? What? Well, if Wii Sports can take about 2 years to beat a game that was 23 years old, you never know. If it's not that fast. Maybe it'll eventually become the biggest selling handheld?
As far as individual handhelds go, all of Nintendo's handhelds, in order of total sales are:
Game Boy/Game Boy Color: 118.69 million (1989-2003)
DS Lite: 91.41 million (2006-present)
Game Boy Advance SP: 43.57 million (2002-2008)
Game Boy Advance: 37.94 million (2001-2008)
DSi: 20.09 million (2008-present)
DS: 18.79 million (2004-present)
DSi XL: 5.29 million (2009-present)
For consoles:
Wii: 75.9 million (2006-present)
NES: 61.91 million (1983-1995)
SNES: 49.1 million (1990-2000)
N64: 32.93 million (1996-2002)
GameCube: 21.74 million (2001-2007)
I foresee massive console shortages, it seems to happen with all the shiny new stuff. And this particular new shiny has 3D in it which is another big thing at the moment.
Admittedly it's not launching around Christmas, seems they missed a trick there.
There WILLbe shortages, guaranteed. Nintendo do in on purpose, so when it is available again, everyone buys one because their lucky friends that have one say its awesome. Its how it works, and I hate it.
Yeah, I'm glad I live in a town where more people own XBoxes than drink water. At least it means I can get a 3DS the weekend after it comes out (Why weekend? It's easier to sneak out of your house during a weekend. ;D)
I'm lucky I live in an area where apparently no one pre orders anything, it means I'll always find what I need in the shops and not have to waste time looking for one. I doubt the 3DS will be any different.
Other dead certs... Midnight launches and a bunch of people suddenly being "unwell" on launch day so they can take the day off to play with their new gadget lol.